It’s Feb. 27, and the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season title is, to say the least, undecided with three games remaining:
For the time being, we’ll ignore the unlikely event that UMass or Richmond, both 9-6, find an avenue to the top seed. Quite a conundrum we have here, eh? In the event of a two-way tie, the tiebreaker is simply head-to-head. After that, it gets…complicated. Per the A-10 (click to enlarge):
Let’s take a quick look at each of the four teams’ remaining schedules (results listed are Ken Pomeroy’s predictions).
The good news for VCU is that it still controls its own destiny at this point. The Rams own a head-to-head tiebreaker versus Rhode Island and can lock up the league title with wins against Dayton and Davidson (easier said than done). Combined A-10 record of remaining opponents: 25-20.
While Dayton does not control its own destiny – the Flyers lost at Davidson – they can prevent both VCU and Rhode Island from winning the league, then hope Davidson stumbles down the stretch. Combined A-10 record of remaining opponents: 29-16.
Davidson, a preseason afterthought in the league race, may be in the most advantageous position of the four contenders. The Wildcats two toughest games on paper are both at home, where they are 12-1 this year. The Wildcats also own wins over both Dayton and Rhode Island. The Wildcats did lose to VCU on Jan. 7. Combined A-10 record of remaining opponents: 24-21.
Rhode Island likely has the most to lose from missing out on the regular season title and also may have the most uphill battle. The remaining schedule is tough, but negotiable, but the Rams have already lost to both VCU and Davidson and still have to play at Dayton, where the Flyers are unbeaten this season. Combined record of remaining A-10 opponents: 24-21.
At this stage VCU and Dayton (most likely) are in the NCAA Tournament, while Davidson has played itself onto the bubble. Rhode Island, however, really needs a strong finish to get into the bubble conversation.
Buckle up. It should be fun.